Election Amidst an Economic War

A rundown of the 2025 Canadian election.

The Canadian election has been a fascinating watch. At first glance, it would appear that we have seen one of the most drastic polling reversals in recent memory. I would rather argue that an unpopular leader left a popular party. While the rate of this change has been fueled by an erratic foreign policy from Canada’s southern neighbor, the change itself was set one way or another. The sudden and unpredictable nature of the new U.S. administration has trumped over most other issues in Canada. However, these issues will still plague whichever party comes out on top. 

Let’s take a look at the polling so far. We can see support for the Liberal party (in red) slowly gaining support since January 6th. The date of this poll was also the day Trudeau announced he was stepping down. Since his resignation, support for the Liberal party has only increased. 1

We do see several major spikes, each occurring on February 23rd, March 17th, and March 23rd. The news and polling is heavily driven by announcements made by U.S. President Donald Trump. The headlines during this timeframe are dominated by news about trade, specifically harm to the Canadian economy. Even when the election is formally underway, the news coverage of the election is dominated by the trade war. Looking at the election, the Liberal party continues to rise after seeing a change in leadership. 

Where we might have seen something change is with the Conservatives. As Poilievere’s image of being a Trump-esque figure has severely backfired. While this has expedited the shift to a Liberal advantage in the polls, I think this will quickly reverse once the election has concluded. The election will still be close, and there is a good chance that the Liberal party will enter into leadership without a clear mandate. The trade war has subsumed all other issues in Canada, including the housing crisis, the cost of living, and environmental issues. The Liberal party is fairing well in standing strong against Trump and his trade war but how they handle the domestic economy is still yet to be seen. Once in power, the new ruling party will have plenty of fires to put out, with the largest one looming across the southern border. 

  1. https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/ ↩︎

Referendum Rundown

Welcome to our Referendum Rundown! Our new series on elections from around the world. This series will take a look at elections from around the world. Coverage will cover different aspects of elections including, candidate rundowns, predictions and implications, and results and analysis. Our election coverage will often have a foreign policy angle, as that is our expertise, and it ensures relevance to global audiences. My personal interest and expertise will mean that you can expect coverage to focus on Northeast Asia, specifically South Korea. However, my own intrigue will often lead me to explore  elections from around the pacific. In the coming days you can expect pieces previewing several key elections from around the Indo-pacific. Australia, South Korea, and Canada are all set to have elections in the coming weeks. While other states, like Japan, are inching their way towards a general election in the near future. 

In 2024, the world saw the most people in human history cast their ballots for their respective states. As we have come to see, democracy can be a fragile system.  We should stop and take the time to appreciate the time we live in. Millions of people get to have a voice in the government that rules over them. This concept would be unheard of just a few centuries ago. When each person gets a say in politics, politics becomes messy. The electoral process is  attempting to get a group of people to have a conversation and come to a decision. This conversation becomes increasingly complicated. It’s difficult to have a productive meeting with 5 people talking, let alone millions. This messy, complicated, and fragile system creates equally complicated, and at times, unexpected results. 

Whether or not we will ever see more people vote than in 2024 is yet to be seen. We are in a time of democratic backsliding across the globe, making each election increasingly important to watch. It is our goal to bring you along for the crazy ride that is a world full of vibrant elections from all around the world!

Can the US Withdraw From the United Nations

The United Nations is one of the most widely recognized institutions in the world, bringing together more than 190 nations. The bright blue of the UN has become an international symbol, quickly recognized on flags, boxes of aid, or on military uniforms. The United Nations brings nations together to tackle complex global problems with a complex and global solution. Every day the United Nations works to create and enforce trade and regulatory agreements, peace agreements, aid distribution, scientific collaboration, and more. Joining the UN brings a state into this wide network of resources, that includes major economic institutions like the IMF and WTO. 

The UN isn’t always thought of in such a positive light. It took Switzerland over 50 years to join! The United States has just pulled out of several large organizations within the UN, in a move seeming to distance the world power from the UN. This is not the first UN skeptic move from the United States. In the early 2010’s there were new calls for the United States to leave the UN. With the Trump administration being more transactional and isolationist in nature, this piece seeks to explore the potential for a US withdrawal, not only from the security council, but from the United Nations as a whole. 

Could the US seek to withdraw from the United Nations as a whole? There may be an attempt by either Mr. Trump or his allies to remove the US. No country has ever withdrawn from the nearly 80 year history of the institution. There have been attempts to leave and even attempts to expel members. The issue is that there is no formal mechanism to leave the UN. The UN Charter does provide insight into when a member state can be expelled.  Article 6 of the UN Charter reads as “A Member of the United Nations which has persistently violated the Principles contained in the present Charter may be expelled from the Organization by the General Assembly upon the recommendation of the Security Council.” However, this article has never been invoked despite the numerous opportunities that have presented themselves. In most recent history, there were calls by the US media to suspend or expel Russia from the UN due to its invasion of Ukraine. 

There was one instance of a country attempting to withdraw from the UN. Indonesia did intend to withdraw from the UN in 1965. A formal letter was submitted to the General Assembly stating Indonesia’s intent to withdraw from the organization. However, Indonesia would go through a violent change in government later that year. The government that would later rise to power would reverse course and remain a part of the UN. Ultimately, Indonesia is still a member of the UN and one of the emerging economies of the world. 

A formal withdrawal from the United Nations is extremely unlikely for any state, let alone a permanent member of the security council. There is one option that the Trump administration could pursue to further distance the US from the transnational organization. The United States could withdraw any and all funding from the United Nations, and even go as far as to stop sending and form of representation. The Trump administration has shown a propensity to withhold funding to various departments and organizations in just the first few weeks. This nuclear option has not been gaining any sort of meaningful traction, but it remains an option. No one can say for certain how the halls of the General Assembly would feel without an American presence, but there would be a large absence that is sure to be felt. 

Violence in the Capitals – How the Seoul Courthouse Riot is Nothing Like January 6th

Chaos broke out at the Western Seoul District in the early hours of the morning on January 19th. They furiously ran through the court house, destroying and defacing everything in their path. The mob made it as far up as the 7th floor, where the judges’ offices are located. The staff that were working in the building at the time were forced to hide on the roof of the building behind a makeshift barricade. According to reporting by the Korea Times, 63 people have been arrested and formally charged for the violence at the Courthouse. Many traditional media sources, observers, and ordinary citizens are comparing the violence in South Korea, to the violence from January 6th 2021 in Washington DC. 

Read More

South Korean Democracy’s Largest Weakness

South Korea’s National Assembly has impeached a president for the second time in almost 7 years. The former prosecutor has found himself in a legally precarious position. He is facing 2 major investigations. The case focused on his impeachment from office will be heard by the constitutional court starting December 27th. The court has impeach presidents before, this is not uncharted territory. However, this is the first time ⅓ of the bench is vacant. Yoon’s martial law debacle has put the South Korean political system on full display, the good and the bad. The international community has heralded South Korea as one of the strongest democracies in Asia, especially after seeing how civil society reacted to the martial law declaration. However, Yoon’s declaration has exposed a critical flaw in South Korea’s democratic system – judicial appointments. 

Read More