A rundown of the 2025 Canadian election.
The Canadian election has been a fascinating watch. At first glance, it would appear that we have seen one of the most drastic polling reversals in recent memory. I would rather argue that an unpopular leader left a popular party. While the rate of this change has been fueled by an erratic foreign policy from Canada’s southern neighbor, the change itself was set one way or another. The sudden and unpredictable nature of the new U.S. administration has trumped over most other issues in Canada. However, these issues will still plague whichever party comes out on top.
Let’s take a look at the polling so far. We can see support for the Liberal party (in red) slowly gaining support since January 6th. The date of this poll was also the day Trudeau announced he was stepping down. Since his resignation, support for the Liberal party has only increased. 
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We do see several major spikes, each occurring on February 23rd, March 17th, and March 23rd. The news and polling is heavily driven by announcements made by U.S. President Donald Trump. The headlines during this timeframe are dominated by news about trade, specifically harm to the Canadian economy. Even when the election is formally underway, the news coverage of the election is dominated by the trade war. Looking at the election, the Liberal party continues to rise after seeing a change in leadership.
Where we might have seen something change is with the Conservatives. As Poilievere’s image of being a Trump-esque figure has severely backfired. While this has expedited the shift to a Liberal advantage in the polls, I think this will quickly reverse once the election has concluded. The election will still be close, and there is a good chance that the Liberal party will enter into leadership without a clear mandate. The trade war has subsumed all other issues in Canada, including the housing crisis, the cost of living, and environmental issues. The Liberal party is fairing well in standing strong against Trump and his trade war but how they handle the domestic economy is still yet to be seen. Once in power, the new ruling party will have plenty of fires to put out, with the largest one looming across the southern border.
- https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/ ↩︎